Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals3
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:56Gabriel Vilardi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (31), Mark Scheifele (43)2–5
- P38:44Gabriel Vilardi Goal (18) Batted, assists: Josh Morrissey (54), Neal Pionk (24)2–4
- P215:35Tyler Toffoli Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (24), Nikolaj Ehlers (33)2–3
- P210:34Daniil Miromanov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (29)2–2
- P114:56Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (19)1–2
- P112:59Gabriel Vilardi Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (24), Josh Morrissey (53)1–1
- P14:35MacKenzie Weegar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (36), Andrei Kuzmenko (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:35MacKenzie Weegar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (36), Andrei Kuzmenko (19)CGY 1 – 0 WPG · CGY 44% → 59% +15CGY 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P112:59Gabriel Vilardi Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (24), Josh Morrissey (53)CGY 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 39% → 56% +16WPG 39% → 56%+16 pts
- P114:56Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (19)CGY 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 56% → 71% +16WPG 56% → 71%+16 pts
- P210:34Daniil Miromanov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (29)CGY 2 – 2 WPG · CGY 26% → 45% +19CGY 26% → 45%+19 pts
- P215:35Tyler Toffoli Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (24), Nikolaj Ehlers (33)CGY 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 54% → 75% +21WPG 54% → 75%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 62%
- Fair odds
- WPG -130
- CGY +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −7 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +87 Elo | WPG 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 24th of 3114–20 | Road vs home | 22–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 2–0 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.