Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals2
- Olen ZellwegerAssists3
- Troy TerryPoints3
Flames- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals2
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:14Alex Killorn Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (13), Troy Terry (32)5–3
- P39:34Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Martin Pospisil (12), MacKenzie Weegar (28)4–3
- P35:09Alex Killorn Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (31)4–2
- P31:52Cam Fowler Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (5), Olen Zellweger (6)3–2
- P213:36Troy Terry Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (16), Olen Zellweger (5)2–2
- P210:26Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (41), Martin Pospisil (11)1–2
- P22:30Yegor Sharangovich Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (40), MacKenzie Weegar (27)1–1
- P114:03Mason McTavish Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Olen Zellweger (4), Brett Leason (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:30Yegor Sharangovich Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (40), MacKenzie Weegar (27)ANA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 38% → 56% +18CGY 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P210:26Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (41), Martin Pospisil (11)ANA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 55% → 74% +19CGY 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P213:36Troy Terry Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (16), Olen Zellweger (5)ANA 2 – 2 CGY · ANA 25% → 45% +20ANA 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P31:52Cam Fowler Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (5), Olen Zellweger (6)ANA 3 – 2 CGY · ANA 46% → 71% +25ANA 46% → 71%+25 pts
- P35:09Alex Killorn Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (31)ANA 4 – 2 CGY · ANA 74% → 92% +18ANA 74% → 92%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 66%
- Fair odds
- CGY -134
- ANA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +113 Elo | CGY 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.9% | Shot share | 51.2%13th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 28th of 3113–24 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.