Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Canucks- Dakota JoshuaGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Dakota JoshuaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:47Dakota Joshua Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (23), J.T. Miller (59)2–3
- P34:48Mason McTavish Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (6), Trevor Zegras (4)2–2
- P33:37Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (3), Frank Vatrano (23)1–2
- P29:34Dakota Joshua Goal (14) Between Legs, assists: Pius Suter (14), Filip Hronek (41)0–2
- P111:26Brock Boeser Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (69), J.T. Miller (58)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:26Brock Boeser Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (69), J.T. Miller (58)ANA 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 61% → 76% +14VAN 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P29:34Dakota Joshua Goal (14) Between Legs, assists: Pius Suter (14), Filip Hronek (41)ANA 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 77% → 89% +12VAN 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P33:37Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (3), Frank Vatrano (23)ANA 1 – 2 VAN · ANA 6% → 19% +13ANA 6% → 19%+13 pts
- P34:48Mason McTavish Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (6), Trevor Zegras (4)ANA 2 – 2 VAN · ANA 19% → 44% +25ANA 19% → 44%+25 pts
- P317:47Dakota Joshua Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (23), J.T. Miller (59)ANA 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 52% → 98% +45VAN 52% → 98%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 75%
- Fair odds
- VAN -167
- ANA +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −5 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +186 Elo | VAN 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.2 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.9% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 31 |
| 27th of 3113–23 | Road vs home | 23–136th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–2 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.