Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints3
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:57Jason Robertson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (37), Roope Hintz (34)3–1
- P316:52Jamie Benn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (36), Roope Hintz (33)2–1
- P27:39J.T. Miller Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (22), Teddy Blueger (21)1–1
- P118:48Roope Hintz Goal (27) Poke, assists: Jason Robertson (49), Jamie Benn (36)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:48Roope Hintz Goal (27) Poke, assists: Jason Robertson (49), Jamie Benn (36)DAL 1 – 0 VAN · DAL 46% → 63% +17DAL 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P27:39J.T. Miller Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (22), Teddy Blueger (21)DAL 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 34% → 54% +19VAN 34% → 54%+19 pts
- P316:52Jamie Benn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (36), Roope Hintz (33)DAL 2 – 1 VAN · DAL 49% → 94% +45DAL 49% → 94%+45 pts
- P317:57Jason Robertson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (37), Roope Hintz (34)DAL 3 – 1 VAN · DAL 97% → >99% +3DAL 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 55%
- Fair odds
- VAN -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −3 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +37 Elo | VAN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3122–14 | Road vs home | 23–124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.