Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints2
Blackhawks- Seth JonesGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Seth JonesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:37Jamie Benn Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (43), Chris Tanev (15)2–3
- P215:37Roope Hintz Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (42), Joe Pavelski (38)1–3
- P28:51Seth Jones Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (15), MacKenzie Entwistle (4)0–3
- P25:53Andreas Athanasiou Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (10), Wyatt Kaiser (7)0–2
- P24:48Connor Bedard Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (35), Nick Foligno (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:48Connor Bedard Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (35), Nick Foligno (20)DAL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 51% → 69% +18CHI 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P25:53Andreas Athanasiou Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (10), Wyatt Kaiser (7)DAL 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 69% → 84% +15CHI 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P28:51Seth Jones Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (15), MacKenzie Entwistle (4)DAL 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 85% → 94% +9CHI 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P215:37Roope Hintz Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (42), Joe Pavelski (38)DAL 1 – 3 CHI · DAL 4% → 12% +8DAL 4% → 12%+8 pts
- P315:37Jamie Benn Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (43), Chris Tanev (15)DAL 2 – 3 CHI · DAL <1% → 9% +8DAL <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 34%
- Fair odds
- CHI -103
- DAL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +9 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +113 Elo | DAL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 45.2%29th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3124–14 | Road vs home | 14–2228th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.