Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
KrakenScoring summary
- P318:43Roope Hintz Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (30), Esa Lindell (19)3–0
- P30:28Joe Pavelski Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P218:12Wyatt Johnston Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (17), Logan Stankoven (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:12Wyatt Johnston Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (17), Logan Stankoven (6)DAL 1 – 0 SEA · DAL 48% → 71% +23DAL 48% → 71%+23 pts
- P30:28Joe Pavelski Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 2 – 0 SEA · DAL 72% → 89% +17DAL 72% → 89%+17 pts
- P318:43Roope Hintz Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (30), Esa Lindell (19)DAL 3 – 0 SEA · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 46%
- Fair odds
- SEA -113
- DAL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +30 Elo | DAL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3123–14 | Road vs home | 15–2226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.