Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Predators- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:52Kyle Connor Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (45), Neal Pionk (25)4–3
- P39:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (59), Gustav Nyquist (50)3–3
- P37:34Spencer Stastney Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (58), Kiefer Sherwood (17)3–2
- P112:46Dylan DeMelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (7)3–1
- P18:19Mark Scheifele Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (21)2–1
- P16:51Gabriel Vilardi Goal (20) Between Legs, assists: Mark Scheifele (44), Josh Morrissey (55)1–1
- P14:05Tommy Novak Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:51Gabriel Vilardi Goal (20) Between Legs, assists: Mark Scheifele (44), Josh Morrissey (55)WPG 1 – 1 NSH · WPG 30% → 45% +15WPG 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P18:19Mark Scheifele Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (21)WPG 2 – 1 NSH · WPG 45% → 61% +16WPG 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P37:34Spencer Stastney Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (58), Kiefer Sherwood (17)WPG 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 6% → 23% +17NSH 6% → 23%+17 pts
- P39:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (59), Gustav Nyquist (50)WPG 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 20% → 52% +32NSH 20% → 52%+32 pts
- OT1:52Kyle Connor Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (45), Neal Pionk (25)WPG 4 – 3 NSH · WPG 49% → 94% +45WPG 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 57%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- WPG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +47 Elo | NSH 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 50.9%13th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 8th of 3120–16 | Road vs home | 21–1614th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.