Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Landon SlaggertGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:51Landon Slaggert Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (16), MacKenzie Entwistle (5)2–5
- P310:01Robert Thomas Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (25), Zack Bolduc (3)1–5
- P28:40Philipp Kurashev Goal (17) Wrap-around, assists: Kevin Korchinski (9)1–4
- P16:59Zack Bolduc Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (58), Brayden Schenn (24)0–4
- P14:37Torey Krug Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (5), Nikita Alexandrov (2)0–3
- P12:46Jordan Kyrou Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (15), Pavel Buchnevich (35)0–2
- P12:04Jordan Kyrou Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (23), Joel Hofer (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:04Jordan Kyrou Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (23), Joel Hofer (1)CHI 0 – 1 STL · STL 57% → 71% +14STL 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P12:46Jordan Kyrou Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (15), Pavel Buchnevich (35)CHI 0 – 2 STL · STL 71% → 82% +11STL 71% → 82%+11 pts
- P14:37Torey Krug Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (5), Nikita Alexandrov (2)CHI 0 – 3 STL · STL 83% → 91% +8STL 83% → 91%+8 pts
- P16:59Zack Bolduc Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (58), Brayden Schenn (24)CHI 0 – 4 STL · STL 91% → 96% +5STL 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P28:40Philipp Kurashev Goal (17) Wrap-around, assists: Kevin Korchinski (9)CHI 1 – 4 STL · CHI 2% → 5% +3CHI 2% → 5%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 66%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −3 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +115 Elo | STL 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.9% | Shot share | 47.0%24th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.4%4th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 31st of 316–30 | Road vs home | 22–149th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.