St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Sharks- William EklundGoals3
- Luke KuninAssists1
- William EklundPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:56William Eklund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (7)2–3
- P317:31Brayden Schenn Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (54), Scott Perunovich (16)2–2
- P33:21Jordan Kyrou Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (34), Robert Thomas (53)1–2
- P216:59William Eklund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (18), Thomas Bordeleau (4)0–2
- P214:42William Eklund Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (5), Mikael Granlund (41)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:42William Eklund Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (5), Mikael Granlund (41)STL 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 51% → 72% +21SJ 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P216:59William Eklund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (18), Thomas Bordeleau (4)STL 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 73% → 89% +15SJ 73% → 89%+15 pts
- P33:21Jordan Kyrou Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (34), Robert Thomas (53)STL 1 – 2 SJ · STL 8% → 24% +16STL 8% → 24%+16 pts
- P317:31Brayden Schenn Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (54), Scott Perunovich (16)STL 2 – 2 SJ · STL 4% → 50% +46STL 4% → 50%+46 pts
- OT3:56William Eklund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (7)STL 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 50% → >99% +49SJ 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 39%
- Fair odds
- SJ -108
- STL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · SJ: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +77 Elo | STL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 24th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 42.0%31st of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 18th of 3116–20 | Road vs home | 10–2630th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.