Seattle Kraken at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists2
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints2
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Fabian ZetterlundAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Jared McCann Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (15), Vince Dunn (35)4–2
- P25:01Klim Kostin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (6), Fabian Zetterlund (17)3–2
- P117:06Shane Wright Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (25), Jaden Schwartz (14)3–1
- P114:19Fabian Zetterlund Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (39), William Eklund (24)2–1
- P111:26Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (25)2–0
- P10:29Matty Beniers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (32), Eeli Tolvanen (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:29Matty Beniers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (32), Eeli Tolvanen (24)SEA 1 – 0 SJ · SEA 47% → 61% +14SEA 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P111:26Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (25)SEA 2 – 0 SJ · SEA 63% → 77% +14SEA 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P114:19Fabian Zetterlund Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (39), William Eklund (24)SEA 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 22% → 36% +14SJ 22% → 36%+14 pts
- P117:06Shane Wright Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (25), Jaden Schwartz (14)SEA 3 – 1 SJ · SEA 64% → 79% +14SEA 64% → 79%+14 pts
- P25:01Klim Kostin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (6), Fabian Zetterlund (17)SEA 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 19% → 34% +15SJ 19% → 34%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -113
- SEA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +3 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.1% | Shot share | 42.0%31st of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 21st of 3114–18 | Road vs home | 10–2430th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.