Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Akil ThomasGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints1
Sharks- Klim KostinGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Klim KostinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:08Klim Kostin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (40), William Eklund (25)2–1
- P111:13Akil Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (20), Pierre-Luc Dubois (24)2–0
- P110:55Adrian Kempe Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:55Adrian Kempe Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 0 SJ · LA 45% → 61% +16LA 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P111:13Akil Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (20), Pierre-Luc Dubois (24)LA 2 – 0 SJ · LA 61% → 75% +14LA 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P318:08Klim Kostin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (40), William Eklund (25)LA 2 – 1 SJ · SJ <1% → 2% +2SJ <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 42%
- Fair odds
- SJ -126
- LA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +59 Elo | LA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.2% | Shot share | 42.1%31st of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 11th of 3119–18 | Road vs home | 10–2530th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 2–1 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.