Seattle Kraken at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Brian DumoulinGoals1
- Yanni GourdeAssists1
- Brian DumoulinPoints1
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals3
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists3
- Trevor MoorePoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:57Trevor Moore Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (23)2–5
- P311:20Brian Dumoulin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (20), Brandon Tanev (6)2–4
- P310:45Kevin Fiala Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (7)1–4
- P35:40Andre Burakovsky Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (33), Jared McCann (32)1–3
- P211:49Trevor Moore Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (22), Viktor Arvidsson (6)0–3
- P27:39Trevor Moore Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (19), Pierre-Luc Dubois (21)0–2
- P19:24Adrian Kempe Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (5), Kevin Fiala (42)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:24Adrian Kempe Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (5), Kevin Fiala (42)SEA 0 – 1 LA · LA 56% → 71% +15LA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P27:39Trevor Moore Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (19), Pierre-Luc Dubois (21)SEA 0 – 2 LA · LA 73% → 87% +14LA 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P211:49Trevor Moore Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (22), Viktor Arvidsson (6)SEA 0 – 3 LA · LA 88% → 96% +8LA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P35:40Andre Burakovsky Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (33), Jared McCann (32)SEA 1 – 3 LA · SEA 1% → 6% +5SEA 1% → 6%+5 pts
- P310:45Kevin Fiala Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (7)SEA 1 – 4 LA · LA 97% → >99% +3LA 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Fair odds
- LA -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +79 Elo | LA 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 53.2%5th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 19th of 3115–18 | Road vs home | 16–1823rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.