St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists3
- Robert ThomasPoints4
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals2
- Isac LundestromAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jordan Kyrou Goal Backhand1–0
- P316:09Leo Carlsson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (18), Cam Fowler (30)5–5
- P38:04Frank Vatrano Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (7), Ryan Strome (26)5–4
- P32:40Brayden Schenn Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (36), Robert Thomas (57)5–3
- P31:01Leo Carlsson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Isac Lundestrom (5), Troy Terry (33)4–3
- P215:50Pavel Buchnevich Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (35), Scott Perunovich (17)4–2
- P213:36Robert Thomas Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (35), Jordan Kyrou (34)3–2
- P23:41Frank Vatrano Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (17), Trevor Zegras (6)2–2
- P112:36Matthew Kessel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (56), Brayden Schenn (23)2–1
- P12:37Nikita Nesterenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (7), Isac Lundestrom (4)1–1
- P10:11Zack Bolduc Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (55), Colton Parayko (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:41Frank Vatrano Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (17), Trevor Zegras (6)STL 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 37% → 55% +18ANA 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P213:36Robert Thomas Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (35), Jordan Kyrou (34)STL 3 – 2 ANA · STL 45% → 67% +21STL 45% → 67%+21 pts
- P31:01Leo Carlsson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Isac Lundestrom (5), Troy Terry (33)STL 4 – 3 ANA · ANA 12% → 29% +18ANA 12% → 29%+18 pts
- P32:40Brayden Schenn Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (36), Robert Thomas (57)STL 5 – 3 ANA · STL 72% → 90% +18STL 72% → 90%+18 pts
- P316:09Leo Carlsson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (18), Cam Fowler (30)STL 5 – 5 ANA · ANA 8% → 52% +44ANA 8% → 52%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 48%
- Fair odds
- ANA -132
- STL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +16 Elo | STL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.229th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 44.9%29th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 20th of 3116–21 | Road vs home | 10–2631st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–0 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.