Seattle Kraken at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals2
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists2
- Shane WrightPoints3
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Leo CarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P216:35Leo Carlsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P211:40Matty Beniers Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Shane Wright (1), Oliver Bjorkstrand (35)3–0
- P22:29Shane Wright Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (16), Justin Schultz (17)2–0
- P116:08Shane Wright Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (34), Brian Dumoulin (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:08Shane Wright Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (34), Brian Dumoulin (10)SEA 1 – 0 ANA · SEA 47% → 63% +17SEA 47% → 63%+17 pts
- P22:29Shane Wright Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (16), Justin Schultz (17)SEA 2 – 0 ANA · SEA 65% → 80% +15SEA 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P211:40Matty Beniers Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Shane Wright (1), Oliver Bjorkstrand (35)SEA 3 – 0 ANA · SEA 84% → 94% +10SEA 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P216:35Leo Carlsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 3 – 1 ANA · ANA 5% → 13% +9ANA 5% → 13%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 49%
- Fair odds
- ANA -117
- SEA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +2 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −1.229th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.2% | Shot share | 45.0%30th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 20th of 3115–19 | Road vs home | 10–2530th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–0 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.