Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:53Teuvo Teravainen Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (28)0–3
- P111:45Sebastian Aho Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (46), Teuvo Teravainen (28)0–2
- P10:17Andrei Svechnikov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (16), Brady Skjei (32)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:17Andrei Svechnikov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (16), Brady Skjei (32)CBJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 62% → 75% +13CAR 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P111:45Sebastian Aho Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (46), Teuvo Teravainen (28)CBJ 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 75% → 86% +11CAR 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P313:53Teuvo Teravainen Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (28)CBJ 0 – 3 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +1CAR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 72%
- Fair odds
- CAR -163
- CBJ +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.7 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +10 | CBJ: Malcolm Subban (no track record yet) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +164 Elo | CAR 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.76th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 56.2%1st of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–26 | Road vs home | 25–146th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.