Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Hurricanes- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Jake GuentzelPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:49Hampus Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P215:12Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Batted, assists: Stefan Noesen (21), Brady Skjei (30)3–1
- P110:46Danton Heinen Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (59), Pavel Zacha (36)3–0
- P17:42David Pastrnak Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (35), Danton Heinen (18)2–0
- P12:12Brad Marchand Goal (28) Deflected, assists: Morgan Geekie (22), Charlie Coyle (33)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:12Brad Marchand Goal (28) Deflected, assists: Morgan Geekie (22), Charlie Coyle (33)BOS 1 – 0 CAR · BOS 44% → 59% +15BOS 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P17:42David Pastrnak Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (35), Danton Heinen (18)BOS 2 – 0 CAR · BOS 60% → 74% +14BOS 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P110:46Danton Heinen Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (59), Pavel Zacha (36)BOS 3 – 0 CAR · BOS 75% → 86% +11BOS 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P215:12Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Batted, assists: Stefan Noesen (21), Brady Skjei (30)BOS 3 – 1 CAR · CAR 5% → 15% +10CAR 5% → 15%+10 pts
- P317:49Hampus Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 4 – 1 CAR · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Fair odds
- CAR -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +16 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +76 Elo | CAR 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3149.0% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 6th of 3121–16 | Road vs home | 24–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.