Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Hurricanes- Jake GuentzelGoals2
- Jaccob SlavinAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:55Jake Guentzel Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (27)2–4
- P318:09Sebastian Aho Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (30), Jake Guentzel (45)2–3
- P311:40Martin Necas Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (31), Evgeny Kuznetsov (16)2–2
- P214:30Jake Guentzel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (26), Jesper Fast (13)2–1
- P119:15Alex Ovechkin Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (40), Dylan Strome (38)2–0
- P13:31Alex Ovechkin Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (37), Trevor van Riemsdyk (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:31Alex Ovechkin Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (37), Trevor van Riemsdyk (12)WSH 1 – 0 CAR · WSH 43% → 58% +15WSH 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P119:15Alex Ovechkin Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (40), Dylan Strome (38)WSH 2 – 0 CAR · WSH 61% → 77% +15WSH 61% → 77%+15 pts
- P214:30Jake Guentzel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (26), Jesper Fast (13)WSH 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 16% → 33% +17CAR 16% → 33%+17 pts
- P311:40Martin Necas Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (31), Evgeny Kuznetsov (16)WSH 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 18% → 53% +35CAR 18% → 53%+35 pts
- P318:09Sebastian Aho Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (30), Jake Guentzel (45)WSH 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 51% → 98% +47CAR 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Fair odds
- CAR -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −17 | 0 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +119 Elo | CAR 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 18th of 3116–20 | Road vs home | 24–146th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.