Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Lars EllerGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists2
- Lars EllerPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Hendrix LapierreAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:23Lars Eller Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Reilly Smith (25), Kris Letang (40)4–1
- P36:02Alex Ovechkin Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (8), Hendrix Lapierre (12)3–1
- P29:08Michael Bunting Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (15), Erik Karlsson (39)3–0
- P111:03Pierre-Olivier Joseph Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (39), Drew O'Connor (16)2–0
- P11:49Ryan Shea Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (24), Lars Eller (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:49Ryan Shea Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (24), Lars Eller (14)PIT 1 – 0 WSH · PIT 45% → 60% +15PIT 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P111:03Pierre-Olivier Joseph Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (39), Drew O'Connor (16)PIT 2 – 0 WSH · PIT 62% → 76% +14PIT 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P29:08Michael Bunting Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (15), Erik Karlsson (39)PIT 3 – 0 WSH · PIT 82% → 92% +10PIT 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P36:02Alex Ovechkin Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (8), Hendrix Lapierre (12)PIT 3 – 1 WSH · WSH 1% → 7% +6WSH 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P317:23Lars Eller Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Reilly Smith (25), Kris Letang (40)PIT 4 – 1 WSH · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +31 Elo | WSH 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%20th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 26th of 3114–23 | Road vs home | 20–1614th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.