Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Martin FehervaryGoals1
- Michael SgarbossaAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints1
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:33Alex Tuch Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (25), Rasmus Dahlin (38)2–6
- P34:48Tage Thompson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (8), Zach Benson (16)2–5
- P33:03Rasmus Dahlin Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (21), Tage Thompson (24)2–4
- P219:14Dylan Strome Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (39), Alex Ovechkin (33)2–3
- P210:54JJ Peterka Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (34)1–3
- P116:50JJ Peterka Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (33), Zach Benson (15)1–2
- P115:42Zemgus Girgensons Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (37), Owen Power (24)1–1
- P12:46Martin Fehervary Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Sgarbossa (3), Hendrix Lapierre (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:46Martin Fehervary Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Sgarbossa (3), Hendrix Lapierre (11)WSH 1 – 0 BUF · WSH 45% → 60% +15WSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P115:42Zemgus Girgensons Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (37), Owen Power (24)WSH 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 38% → 54% +17BUF 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P116:50JJ Peterka Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (33), Zach Benson (15)WSH 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 54% → 70% +16BUF 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P219:14Dylan Strome Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (39), Alex Ovechkin (33)WSH 2 – 3 BUF · WSH 9% → 24% +15WSH 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P33:03Rasmus Dahlin Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (21), Tage Thompson (24)WSH 2 – 4 BUF · BUF 77% → 93% +15BUF 77% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 55%
- Fair odds
- BUF -122
- WSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +34 Elo | BUF 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 17th of 3116–19 | Road vs home | 17–2023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.