Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Olle LycksellGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Olle LycksellPoints1
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals2
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:08Adam Ginning Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (11), Ronnie Attard (2)2–6
- P311:26Zach Werenski Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Meyer (1), James Malatesta (1)1–6
- P39:29Zach Werenski Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (16)1–5
- P215:20Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Jiricek (9), Alexandre Texier (18)1–4
- P214:32Olle Lycksell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (9)1–3
- P28:23Damon Severson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (47), Alex Nylander (4)0–3
- P118:54Damon Severson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (43), Johnny Gaudreau (46)0–2
- P112:08Erik Gudbranson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (1), Justin Danforth (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:08Erik Gudbranson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (1), Justin Danforth (12)PHI 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 58% → 73% +15CBJ 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P118:54Damon Severson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (43), Johnny Gaudreau (46)PHI 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 73% → 86% +12CBJ 73% → 86%+12 pts
- P28:23Damon Severson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (47), Alex Nylander (4)PHI 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 95% +7CBJ 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P214:32Olle Lycksell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (9)PHI 1 – 3 CBJ · PHI 3% → 10% +7PHI 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P215:20Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Jiricek (9), Alexandre Texier (18)PHI 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 90% → 97% +7CBJ 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 57%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -143
- PHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +3 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +51 Elo | CBJ 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 46.8%25th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%21st of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 18th of 3116–20 | Road vs home | 15–2327th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.