Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Owen TippettAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints2
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals2
- Zach BensonAssists2
- Jack QuinnPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:59Jack Quinn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (18), Dylan Cozens (28)2–4
- P39:19Owen Tippett Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (33), Scott Laughton (25)2–3
- P219:54Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (17), Owen Power (25)1–3
- P214:51Rasmus Dahlin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (26), Alex Tuch (36)1–2
- P29:07Noah Cates Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (23), Cam York (20)1–1
- P110:01Tage Thompson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (22), Alex Tuch (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:01Tage Thompson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (22), Alex Tuch (35)PHI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 70% +15BUF 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P29:07Noah Cates Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (23), Cam York (20)PHI 1 – 1 BUF · PHI 27% → 46% +19PHI 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P214:51Rasmus Dahlin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (26), Alex Tuch (36)PHI 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 54% → 75% +21BUF 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P219:54Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (17), Owen Power (25)PHI 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 76% → 91% +15BUF 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P39:19Owen Tippett Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (33), Scott Laughton (25)PHI 2 – 3 BUF · PHI 4% → 18% +14PHI 4% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Fair odds
- BUF -127
- PHI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov (no track record yet) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +66 Elo | BUF 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 17th of 3116–19 | Road vs home | 18–2022nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.