Columbus Blue Jackets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Panthers- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:43Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (28)0–4
- P219:06Sam Reinhart Goal (54) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (54), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23)0–3
- P217:25Evan Rodrigues Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (22), Eetu Luostarinen (14)0–2
- P10:47Matthew Tkachuk Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22), Nick Cousins (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:47Matthew Tkachuk Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22), Nick Cousins (7)CBJ 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 58% → 71% +14FLA 58% → 71%+14 pts
- P217:25Evan Rodrigues Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (22), Eetu Luostarinen (14)CBJ 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 76% → 91% +14FLA 76% → 91%+14 pts
- P219:06Sam Reinhart Goal (54) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (54), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23)CBJ 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 91% → 98% +6FLA 91% → 98%+6 pts
- P317:43Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (28)CBJ 0 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 69%
- Fair odds
- FLA -137
- CBJ +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −5 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +136 Elo | FLA 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–28 | Road vs home | 22–1511th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.