Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Gustav ForslingAssists2
- Gustav ForslingPoints2
Bruins- Jesper BoqvistGoals1
- Danton HeinenAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:05Jesper Boqvist Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P35:24Aleksander Barkov Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (37), Gustav Forsling (27)2–2
- P215:45Charlie Coyle Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (38), David Pastrnak (60)1–2
- P15:42Charlie McAvoy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (19), Pavel Zacha (37)1–1
- P10:37Matthew Tkachuk Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (31), Gustav Forsling (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:37Matthew Tkachuk Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (31), Gustav Forsling (26)FLA 1 – 0 BOS · FLA 45% → 59% +15FLA 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P15:42Charlie McAvoy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (19), Pavel Zacha (37)FLA 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 40% → 55% +15BOS 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P215:45Charlie Coyle Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (38), David Pastrnak (60)FLA 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 53% → 74% +21BOS 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P35:24Aleksander Barkov Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (37), Gustav Forsling (27)FLA 2 – 2 BOS · FLA 21% → 47% +26FLA 21% → 47%+26 pts
- OT2:05Jesper Boqvist Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 51% → 95% +44BOS 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- FLA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +5 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +36 Elo | BOS 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–14 | Road vs home | 22–1511th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.