Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
Panthers- Nick CousinsGoals1
- Sam BennettAssists1
- Nick CousinsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P114:48Nick Cousins Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (14), Sam Bennett (20)0–2
- P112:02Anton Lundell Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Stolarz (2)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:02Anton Lundell Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Stolarz (2)OTT 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 71% +15FLA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P114:48Nick Cousins Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (14), Sam Bennett (20)OTT 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 72% → 84% +12FLA 72% → 84%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 65%
- Fair odds
- FLA -133
- OTT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +105 Elo | FLA 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%3rd of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 25th of 3114–22 | Road vs home | 21–1513th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–3 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.