Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Ridly GreigAssists1
- Ridly GreigPoints2
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Max PaciorettyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:41Jake Sanderson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (13), Brady Tkachuk (34)3–2
- P312:49Ridly Greig Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (18), Erik Brannstrom (16)2–2
- P217:10Aliaksei Protas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (13), Martin Fehervary (12)1–2
- P25:40Mark Kastelic Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jakob Chychrun (26), Parker Kelly (10)1–1
- P14:43Max Pacioretty Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:43Max Pacioretty Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (13)OTT 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 59% → 73% +14WSH 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P25:40Mark Kastelic Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jakob Chychrun (26), Parker Kelly (10)OTT 1 – 1 WSH · OTT 25% → 43% +17OTT 25% → 43%+17 pts
- P217:10Aliaksei Protas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (13), Martin Fehervary (12)OTT 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 56% → 77% +21WSH 56% → 77%+21 pts
- P312:49Ridly Greig Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (18), Erik Brannstrom (16)OTT 2 – 2 WSH · OTT 13% → 47% +34OTT 13% → 47%+34 pts
- OT0:41Jake Sanderson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (13), Brady Tkachuk (34)OTT 3 – 2 WSH · OTT 47% → 90% +43OTT 47% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Fair odds
- WSH -146
- OTT +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +70 Elo | WSH 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 46.3%27th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 27th of 3113–22 | Road vs home | 20–1715th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.