Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals2
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals3
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Steven StamkosPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:57Steven Stamkos Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (96)2–5
- P35:56Steven Stamkos Goal (38) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (48), Erik Cernak (11)2–4
- P35:40Anthony Cirelli Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (47), Steven Stamkos (38)2–3
- P214:17Steven Stamkos Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (95), Victor Hedman (63)2–2
- P27:13Kirill Marchenko Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (48), Zach Werenski (44)2–1
- P119:17Kirill Marchenko Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (18), Damon Severson (18)1–1
- P116:31Brayden Point Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (94), Anthony Duclair (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:31Brayden Point Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (94), Anthony Duclair (17)CBJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 56% → 72% +16TB 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P119:17Kirill Marchenko Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (18), Damon Severson (18)CBJ 1 – 1 TB · CBJ 28% → 44% +16CBJ 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P27:13Kirill Marchenko Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (48), Zach Werenski (44)CBJ 2 – 1 TB · CBJ 45% → 64% +19CBJ 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P214:17Steven Stamkos Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (95), Victor Hedman (63)CBJ 2 – 2 TB · TB 33% → 55% +22TB 33% → 55%+22 pts
- P35:40Anthony Cirelli Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (47), Steven Stamkos (38)CBJ 2 – 3 TB · TB 54% → 80% +26TB 54% → 80%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- CBJ +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +120 Elo | TB 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–27 | Road vs home | 22–148th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.