Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Canadiens- Joel ArmiaGoals2
- Alex NewhookAssists2
- Joel ArmiaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:06Steven Stamkos Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (90)7–4
- P311:51Cole Caufield Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (40), Juraj Slafkovsky (28)6–4
- P38:40Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Arber Xhekaj (7), Mike Matheson (43)6–3
- P217:45Nikita Kucherov Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (42), Steven Stamkos (37)6–2
- P213:18Brandon Hagel Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (25), Anthony Cirelli (24)5–2
- P29:12Nicholas Paul Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (12)4–2
- P27:58Steven Stamkos Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (23), Calvin de Haan (6)3–2
- P24:42Joel Armia Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (17), Brendan Gallagher (12)2–2
- P116:26Michael Eyssimont Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (3), Mathew Dumba (7)2–1
- P19:45Nicholas Paul Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (41), Nikita Kucherov (89)1–1
- P12:37Joel Armia Goal (15) Batted, assists: Brendan Gallagher (11), Alex Newhook (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:45Nicholas Paul Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (41), Nikita Kucherov (89)TB 1 – 1 MTL · TB 28% → 43% +15TB 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P116:26Michael Eyssimont Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (3), Mathew Dumba (7)TB 2 – 1 MTL · TB 43% → 60% +17TB 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P24:42Joel Armia Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (17), Brendan Gallagher (12)TB 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 37% → 56% +19MTL 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P27:58Steven Stamkos Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (23), Calvin de Haan (6)TB 3 – 2 MTL · TB 44% → 64% +20TB 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P29:12Nicholas Paul Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (12)TB 4 – 2 MTL · TB 64% → 81% +17TB 64% → 81%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 51%
- Fair odds
- MTL -136
- TB +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +11 | TB: Matt Tomkins: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +7 Elo | MTL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 10th of 3119–18 | Road vs home | 14–2228th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–0 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.