Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:19Nicholas Paul Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (24), Nikita Kucherov (88)4–1
- P28:47Steven Stamkos Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (46), Haydn Fleury (4)3–1
- P22:54Brayden Point Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (87), Anthony Duclair (16)2–1
- P119:00Auston Matthews Goal (63) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (45), John Tavares (35)1–1
- P110:03Victor Hedman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (86), Brandon Hagel (45)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:03Victor Hedman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (86), Brandon Hagel (45)TB 1 – 0 TOR · TB 45% → 61% +16TB 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P119:00Auston Matthews Goal (63) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (45), John Tavares (35)TB 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 37% → 54% +17TOR 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P22:54Brayden Point Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (87), Anthony Duclair (16)TB 2 – 1 TOR · TB 46% → 64% +18TB 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P28:47Steven Stamkos Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (46), Haydn Fleury (4)TB 3 – 1 TOR · TB 66% → 82% +16TB 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P314:19Nicholas Paul Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (24), Nikita Kucherov (88)TB 4 – 1 TOR · TB >99% → >99% +1TB >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- TB +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +39 Elo | TOR 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%21st of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 13th of 3118–18 | Road vs home | 20–1614th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.