Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists2
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:57Lucas Raymond Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (31)4–2
- P317:20David Perron Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Moritz Seider (31), J.T. Compher (26)3–2
- P35:59Steven Stamkos Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (40), Nikita Kucherov (85)2–2
- P33:40Robby Fabbri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (25)2–1
- P28:36Anthony Cirelli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (44)1–1
- P20:37Patrick Kane Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Dylan Larkin (30), Alex DeBrincat (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:37Patrick Kane Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Dylan Larkin (30), Alex DeBrincat (36)DET 1 – 0 TB · DET 45% → 63% +18DET 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P28:36Anthony Cirelli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (44)DET 1 – 1 TB · TB 35% → 54% +20TB 35% → 54%+20 pts
- P33:40Robby Fabbri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (25)DET 2 – 1 TB · DET 47% → 73% +26DET 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P35:59Steven Stamkos Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (40), Nikita Kucherov (85)DET 2 – 2 TB · TB 25% → 53% +28TB 25% → 53%+28 pts
- P317:20David Perron Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Moritz Seider (31), J.T. Compher (26)DET 3 – 2 TB · DET 49% → 96% +47DET 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +76 Elo | TB 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 21st of 3115–20 | Road vs home | 22–137th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–0 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.