Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Victor HedmanPoints3
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists3
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:32Michael Bunting Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (37), Erik Karlsson (42)4–5
- P310:45Steven Stamkos Goal (36) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (62), Nikita Kucherov (93)4–4
- P37:23Anthony Duclair Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (92), Victor Hedman (61)3–4
- P30:25Nicholas Paul Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (13), Mitchell Chaffee (2)2–4
- P216:57Evgeni Malkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (31)1–4
- P214:39Kris Letang Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P212:15Steven Stamkos Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (60), Nikita Kucherov (91)1–2
- P26:06Evgeni Malkin Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (41), Michael Bunting (30)0–2
- P14:20Sidney Crosby Goal (40) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (25), Erik Karlsson (40)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:15Steven Stamkos Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (60), Nikita Kucherov (91)TB 1 – 2 PIT · TB 13% → 27% +15TB 13% → 27%+15 pts
- P214:39Kris Letang Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 73% → 88% +15PIT 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P37:23Anthony Duclair Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (92), Victor Hedman (61)TB 3 – 4 PIT · TB 5% → 20% +15TB 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P310:45Steven Stamkos Goal (36) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (62), Nikita Kucherov (93)TB 4 – 4 PIT · TB 17% → 49% +32TB 17% → 49%+32 pts
- P314:32Michael Bunting Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (37), Erik Karlsson (42)TB 4 – 5 PIT · PIT 51% → 89% +38PIT 51% → 89%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -116
- TB +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +9 Elo | TB 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.3% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 10th of 3120–18 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.