Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints1
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- 2OT11:42Matt Duchene Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (3)2–1
- P31:56Jamie Benn Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (3), Tyler Seguin (5)1–1
- P25:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (3), Cale Makar (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (3), Cale Makar (10)DAL 0 – 1 COL · COL 53% → 72% +18COL 53% → 72%+18 pts
- P31:56Jamie Benn Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (3), Tyler Seguin (5)DAL 1 – 1 COL · DAL 23% → 47% +24DAL 23% → 47%+24 pts
- 2OT11:42Matt Duchene Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (3)DAL 2 – 1 COL · DAL 49% → 100% +51DAL 49% → 100%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -120
- DAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +21 Elo | COL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 29–101st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 4–5 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.
- May 15COL 5 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- May 13DAL 5 @ COL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Miss
- May 11DAL 4 @ COL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Miss
- May 9COL 3 @ DAL 5PlayoffsPicked DAL 55%Hit
- May 7COL 4 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 55%Miss
- Apr 7DAL 7 @ COL 4Picked COL 55%Miss
- Feb 27DAL 1 @ COL 5Picked COL 59%Hit
- Jan 4COL 5 @ DAL 4Picked DAL 55%Miss