Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints3
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT11:03Miles Wood Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Andrew Cogliano (4), Samuel Girard (2)4–3
- P30:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (9), Cale Makar (9)3–3
- P29:08Cale Makar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1), Mikko Rantanen (8)2–3
- P25:31Valeri Nichushkin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (8), Nathan MacKinnon (8)1–3
- P116:56Jamie Benn Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Miro Heiskanen (5)0–3
- P110:55Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (1), Jamie Benn (3)0–2
- P17:26Ryan Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:26Ryan Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (2)COL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 55% → 69% +15DAL 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P110:55Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (1), Jamie Benn (3)COL 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 70% → 82% +12DAL 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P29:08Cale Makar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1), Mikko Rantanen (8)COL 2 – 3 DAL · COL 13% → 27% +14COL 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P30:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (9), Cale Makar (9)COL 3 – 3 DAL · COL 24% → 47% +23COL 24% → 47%+23 pts
- OT11:03Miles Wood Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Andrew Cogliano (4), Samuel Girard (2)COL 4 – 3 DAL · COL 49% → 100% +51COL 49% → 100%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +7 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +37 Elo | DAL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 14th of 3119–20 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–1 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.