Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Jets- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Colin MillerAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:58Josh Manson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (5)6–3
- P38:01Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Cale Makar (7)5–3
- P34:11Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (4), Nathan MacKinnon (6)4–3
- P32:06Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2), Colin Miller (1)3–3
- P213:45Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) , assists: none3–2
- P26:48Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (4), Gabriel Vilardi (4)2–2
- P25:42Yakov Trenin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (3), Andrew Cogliano (3)2–1
- P13:18Valeri Nichushkin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (3), Mikko Rantanen (7)1–1
- P11:15Kyle Connor Goal (3) , assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:42Yakov Trenin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (3), Andrew Cogliano (3)COL 2 – 1 WPG · COL 47% → 66% +19COL 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P26:48Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (4), Gabriel Vilardi (4)COL 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 34% → 53% +19WPG 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P213:45Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) , assists: noneCOL 3 – 2 WPG · COL 47% → 68% +21COL 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P32:06Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2), Colin Miller (1)COL 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 27% → 52% +25WPG 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P34:11Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (4), Nathan MacKinnon (6)COL 4 – 3 WPG · COL 48% → 74% +27COL 48% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 51%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −11 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +8 Elo | WPG 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 14th of 3119–20 | Road vs home | 25–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–4 WPG in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.