Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals2
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Cole PerfettiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:55Cole Perfetti Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P35:18Nikita Chibrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (16)2–3
- P217:11Elias Lindholm Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (75), Conor Garland (27)2–2
- P20:55Cole Perfetti Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (22), Nate Schmidt (12)1–2
- P111:26Gabriel Vilardi Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (16), Brad Lambert (1)1–1
- P15:22Conor Garland Goal (20) Deflected, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:22Conor Garland Goal (20) Deflected, assists: noneVAN 1 – 0 WPG · VAN 45% → 60% +15VAN 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P111:26Gabriel Vilardi Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (16), Brad Lambert (1)VAN 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 39% → 55% +16WPG 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P20:55Cole Perfetti Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (22), Nate Schmidt (12)VAN 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 54% → 71% +17WPG 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P217:11Elias Lindholm Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (75), Conor Garland (27)VAN 2 – 2 WPG · VAN 25% → 47% +22VAN 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P35:18Nikita Chibrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (16)VAN 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 52% → 79% +26WPG 52% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Fair odds
- WPG -122
- VAN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +10 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +35 Elo | WPG 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 50.3%17th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 8th of 3122–17 | Road vs home | 24–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.