Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Yanni GourdeGoals1
- Yanni GourdeAssists1
- Yanni GourdePoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:40Tyler Toffoli Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (36), Neal Pionk (28)3–4
- P218:13Tye Kartye Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (22)3–3
- P25:11Yanni Gourde Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (8), Brandon Tanev (7)2–3
- P22:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (22), Neal Pionk (27)1–3
- P119:54Kyle Connor Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (59), Mark Scheifele (47)1–2
- P118:38Tomas Tatar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (3)1–1
- P110:33Kyle Connor Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46), Josh Morrissey (58)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:33Kyle Connor Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46), Josh Morrissey (58)SEA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 57% → 72% +15WPG 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P118:38Tomas Tatar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (3)SEA 1 – 1 WPG · SEA 27% → 44% +16SEA 27% → 44%+16 pts
- P119:54Kyle Connor Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (59), Mark Scheifele (47)SEA 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 56% → 73% +16WPG 56% → 73%+16 pts
- P218:13Tye Kartye Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (22)SEA 3 – 3 WPG · SEA 24% → 45% +22SEA 24% → 45%+22 pts
- P311:40Tyler Toffoli Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (36), Neal Pionk (28)SEA 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 53% → 85% +32WPG 53% → 85%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 67%
- Fair odds
- WPG -136
- SEA +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +126 Elo | WPG 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3116–21 | Road vs home | 23–148th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.