Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Sean MonahanGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints3
AvalancheScoring summary
- P216:33Adam Lowry Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: David Gustafsson (4)7–0
- P215:11Sean Monahan Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (57), Nikolaj Ehlers (35)6–0
- P210:19Tyler Toffoli Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (27)5–0
- P115:17Adam Lowry Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Gustafsson (3), Dylan DeMelo (28)4–0
- P115:07Josh Morrissey Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (33)3–0
- P18:02Gabriel Vilardi Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (26), Josh Morrissey (56)2–0
- P15:59Sean Monahan Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (34), Neal Pionk (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:59Sean Monahan Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (34), Neal Pionk (26)WPG 1 – 0 COL · WPG 45% → 60% +15WPG 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P18:02Gabriel Vilardi Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (26), Josh Morrissey (56)WPG 2 – 0 COL · WPG 60% → 74% +14WPG 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P115:07Josh Morrissey Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (33)WPG 3 – 0 COL · WPG 77% → 87% +11WPG 77% → 87%+11 pts
- P115:17Adam Lowry Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Gustafsson (3), Dylan DeMelo (28)WPG 4 – 0 COL · WPG 88% → 94% +7WPG 88% → 94%+7 pts
- P210:19Tyler Toffoli Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (27)WPG 5 – 0 COL · WPG 98% → >99% +2WPG 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- WPG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +48 Elo | COL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 1st of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 7th of 3122–16 | Road vs home | 28–91st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.