Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists2
- Mason AppletonPoints2
StarsScoring summary
- P317:39Mark Scheifele Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (25), Mason Appleton (21)3–0
- P29:20David Gustafsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (17), Mason Appleton (20)2–0
- P114:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (24) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (24) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 1 – 0 DAL · WPG 45% → 62% +17WPG 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P29:20David Gustafsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (17), Mason Appleton (20)WPG 2 – 0 DAL · WPG 66% → 82% +16WPG 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P317:39Mark Scheifele Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (25), Mason Appleton (21)WPG 3 – 0 DAL · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Fair odds
- DAL -126
- WPG +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +59 Elo | DAL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 8th of 3121–16 | Road vs home | 22–149th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.