Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Peyton KrebsAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists2
- Thomas HarleyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P27:08Joe Pavelski Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Chris Tanev (17), Thomas Harley (31)2–3
- P23:38Wyatt Johnston Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (30)2–2
- P19:38Rasmus Dahlin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (26), Peyton Krebs (12)2–1
- P16:15Jason Robertson Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (35)1–1
- P14:09Alex Tuch Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Henri Jokiharju (14), Bowen Byram (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:09Alex Tuch Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Henri Jokiharju (14), Bowen Byram (16)BUF 1 – 0 DAL · BUF 43% → 58% +15BUF 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P16:15Jason Robertson Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (35)BUF 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 41% → 56% +15DAL 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P19:38Rasmus Dahlin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (26), Peyton Krebs (12)BUF 2 – 1 DAL · BUF 44% → 60% +16BUF 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P23:38Wyatt Johnston Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (30)BUF 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 37% → 55% +18DAL 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P27:08Joe Pavelski Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Chris Tanev (17), Thomas Harley (31)BUF 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 55% → 73% +18DAL 55% → 73%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -131
- BUF +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +96 Elo | DAL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 15th of 3117–20 | Road vs home | 21–1410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.