Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals2
- Thomas HarleyAssists3
- Jamie BennPoints3
Avalanche- Brandon DuhaimeGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Brandon DuhaimePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Tyler Seguin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (38)7–4
- P315:12Wyatt Johnston Goal (31) Poke, assists: Logan Stankoven (8), Jamie Benn (37)6–4
- P310:15Jonathan Drouin Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (35)5–4
- P219:15Brandon Duhaime Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (85), Casey Mittelstadt (38)5–3
- P217:10Mason Marchment Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (29), Wyatt Johnston (33)5–2
- P212:45Tyler Seguin Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (39), Thomas Harley (28)4–2
- P211:25Roope Hintz Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Joe Pavelski (39), Thomas Harley (27)3–2
- P24:38Artturi Lehkonen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (84), Cale Makar (65)2–2
- P119:17Jamie Benn Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (20), Wyatt Johnston (32)2–1
- P117:11Matt Duchene Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (16)1–1
- P11:59Sean Walker Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (8), Ross Colton (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:11Matt Duchene Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (16)DAL 1 – 1 COL · DAL 30% → 46% +16DAL 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P119:17Jamie Benn Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (20), Wyatt Johnston (32)DAL 2 – 1 COL · DAL 46% → 63% +17DAL 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P24:38Artturi Lehkonen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (84), Cale Makar (65)DAL 2 – 2 COL · COL 35% → 54% +19COL 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P211:25Roope Hintz Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Joe Pavelski (39), Thomas Harley (27)DAL 3 – 2 COL · DAL 47% → 67% +21DAL 47% → 67%+21 pts
- P212:45Tyler Seguin Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (39), Thomas Harley (28)DAL 4 – 2 COL · DAL 68% → 84% +16DAL 68% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Fair odds
- COL -121
- DAL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +29 Elo | COL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3124–15 | Road vs home | 27–81st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–3 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.