Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinGoals1
- Artturi LehkonenAssists1
- Jonathan DrouinPoints1
Oilers- Evander KaneGoals2
- Cody CeciAssists2
- Evander KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:59Evander Kane Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (16), Brett Kulak (11)2–6
- P34:05Connor McDavid Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (62), Zach Hyman (21)2–5
- P219:58Evander Kane Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Ryan McLeod (15), Cody Ceci (20)2–4
- P28:55Mattias Ekholm Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (62), Evan Bouchard (61)2–3
- P117:18Connor McDavid Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (33), Leon Draisaitl (61)2–2
- P115:59Ross Colton Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (15), Cale Makar (64)2–1
- P111:58Jonathan Drouin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (83), Mikko Rantanen (62)1–1
- P11:52Corey Perry Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (17), Cody Ceci (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:58Jonathan Drouin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (83), Mikko Rantanen (62)COL 1 – 1 EDM · COL 27% → 42% +15COL 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P115:59Ross Colton Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (15), Cale Makar (64)COL 2 – 1 EDM · COL 42% → 59% +17COL 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P117:18Connor McDavid Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (33), Leon Draisaitl (61)COL 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 40% → 57% +17EDM 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P28:55Mattias Ekholm Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (62), Evan Bouchard (61)COL 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 56% → 75% +18EDM 56% → 75%+18 pts
- P219:58Evander Kane Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Ryan McLeod (15), Cody Ceci (20)COL 2 – 4 EDM · EDM 78% → 92% +14EDM 78% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 57%
- Fair odds
- EDM -142
- COL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +47 Elo | EDM 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.0% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 12th of 3119–18 | Road vs home | 24–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.