Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Scoring summary
- P113:16Tage Thompson Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (19), Alex Tuch (37)1–3
- P17:37Dylan Larkin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (37), David Perron (26)0–3
- P14:24Patrick Kane Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (20)0–2
- P10:53Lucas Raymond Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Lucas Raymond Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 0 – 1 DET · DET 55% → 69% +14DET 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:24Patrick Kane Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (20)BUF 0 – 2 DET · DET 69% → 81% +12DET 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P17:37Dylan Larkin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (37), David Perron (26)BUF 0 – 3 DET · DET 82% → 90% +9DET 82% → 90%+9 pts
- P113:16Tage Thompson Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (19), Alex Tuch (37)BUF 1 – 3 DET · BUF 9% → 17% +9BUF 9% → 17%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Fair odds
- DET -122
- BUF +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 46.6%26th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 15th of 3117–19 | Road vs home | 21–1512th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.