New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Barclay GoodrowGoals2
- Jonny BrodzinskiAssists2
- Barclay GoodrowPoints2
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- David PerronAssists2
- David PerronPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:14Chris Kreider Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (41), Artemi Panarin (66)4–3
- P213:44Barclay Goodrow Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (13), Jimmy Vesey (12)3–3
- P213:19Dylan Larkin Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (25), Shayne Gostisbehere (40)2–3
- P21:24J.T. Compher Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Jeff Petry (19), David Perron (24)2–2
- P119:31Barclay Goodrow Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (11), Jonny Brodzinski (12)2–1
- P17:11Andrew Copp Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Joe Veleno (16), Moritz Seider (32)1–1
- P15:58Will Cuylle Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:31Barclay Goodrow Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (11), Jonny Brodzinski (12)NYR 2 – 1 DET · NYR 47% → 65% +17NYR 47% → 65%+17 pts
- P21:24J.T. Compher Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Jeff Petry (19), David Perron (24)NYR 2 – 2 DET · DET 35% → 53% +18DET 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P213:19Dylan Larkin Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (25), Shayne Gostisbehere (40)NYR 2 – 3 DET · DET 52% → 73% +20DET 52% → 73%+20 pts
- P213:44Barclay Goodrow Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (13), Jimmy Vesey (12)NYR 3 – 3 DET · NYR 27% → 48% +21NYR 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P310:14Chris Kreider Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (41), Artemi Panarin (66)NYR 4 – 3 DET · NYR 49% → 81% +32NYR 49% → 81%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Fair odds
- DET -115
- NYR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −1 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +22 Elo | NYR 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3122–15 | Road vs home | 21–1410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.