Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals3
- Jonathan DrouinAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P219:08Nathan MacKinnon Goal (51) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (16)2–5
- P214:50Nathan MacKinnon Goal (50) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (37), Devon Toews (37)2–4
- P26:15Cale Makar Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (36), Jonathan Drouin (36)2–3
- P119:40Matt Boldy Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (51), Declan Chisholm (6)2–2
- P110:14Kirill Kaprizov Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (50), Matt Boldy (36)1–2
- P18:38Nathan MacKinnon Goal (49) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (35), Cale Makar (67)0–2
- P14:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (86), Cale Makar (66)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (86), Cale Makar (66)MIN 0 – 1 COL · COL 56% → 70% +14COL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P110:14Kirill Kaprizov Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (50), Matt Boldy (36)MIN 1 – 2 COL · MIN 17% → 29% +12MIN 17% → 29%+12 pts
- P119:40Matt Boldy Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (51), Declan Chisholm (6)MIN 2 – 2 COL · MIN 28% → 45% +17MIN 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P26:15Cale Makar Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (36), Jonathan Drouin (36)MIN 2 – 3 COL · COL 55% → 73% +18COL 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P214:50Nathan MacKinnon Goal (50) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (37), Devon Toews (37)MIN 2 – 4 COL · COL 75% → 89% +14COL 75% → 89%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +77 Elo | COL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 21st of 3115–19 | Road vs home | 27–91st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–3 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.