San Jose Sharks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Kyle BurroughsGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- William EklundPoints2
Kraken- Brian DumoulinGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Brian DumoulinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:37Fabian Zetterlund Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (44), William Eklund (27)3–1
- P214:46Kyle Burroughs Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (26), Henry Thrun (8)2–1
- P19:22Brian Dumoulin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (27)1–1
- P18:06Luke Kunin Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Henry Thrun (7), Klim Kostin (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:06Luke Kunin Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Henry Thrun (7), Klim Kostin (6)SJ 1 – 0 SEA · SJ 43% → 59% +16SJ 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P19:22Brian Dumoulin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (27)SJ 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 41% → 57% +16SEA 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P214:46Kyle Burroughs Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (26), Henry Thrun (8)SJ 2 – 1 SEA · SJ 45% → 67% +22SJ 45% → 67%+22 pts
- P215:37Fabian Zetterlund Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (44), William Eklund (27)SJ 3 – 1 SEA · SJ 67% → 85% +17SJ 67% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 67%
- Fair odds
- SEA -136
- SJ +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +10 | SJ: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +124 Elo | SEA 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.9% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 30th of 317–30 | Road vs home | 15–2327th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.