Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Sharks- Jacob MacDonaldGoals1
- Mike HoffmanAssists1
- Jacob MacDonaldPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:58Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (38), Nazem Kadri (42)3–2
- P214:51Nazem Kadri Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (27), Andrei Kuzmenko (22)2–2
- P25:35Rasmus Andersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (5), Nikita Okhotiuk (8)1–2
- P22:22Jacob MacDonald Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mike Hoffman (13)0–2
- P17:22William Eklund Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (20), Mikael Granlund (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:22William Eklund Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (20), Mikael Granlund (43)CGY 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 68% +15SJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P22:22Jacob MacDonald Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mike Hoffman (13)CGY 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 70% → 84% +14SJ 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P25:35Rasmus Andersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (5), Nikita Okhotiuk (8)CGY 1 – 2 SJ · CGY 15% → 29% +14CGY 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P214:51Nazem Kadri Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (27), Andrei Kuzmenko (22)CGY 2 – 2 SJ · CGY 27% → 48% +21CGY 27% → 48%+21 pts
- OT2:58Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (38), Nazem Kadri (42)CGY 3 – 2 SJ · CGY 49% → 98% +48CGY 49% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +29 Elo | CGY 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −1.731st of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 42.0%31st of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%28th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 24th of 3114–21 | Road vs home | 11–2630th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–1 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.