Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints3
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Andrei KuzmenkoAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:17Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P310:36Evan Bouchard Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (46), Connor McDavid (99)3–2
- P37:13Nazem Kadri Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (26), Andrei Kuzmenko (21)2–2
- P23:57Yegor Sharangovich Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (20), Jonathan Huberdeau (37)2–1
- P23:13Connor Brown Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (8), Derek Ryan (7)2–0
- P119:44Leon Draisaitl Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (45), Connor McDavid (98)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:44Leon Draisaitl Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (45), Connor McDavid (98)EDM 1 – 0 CGY · EDM 44% → 61% +18EDM 44% → 61%+18 pts
- P23:13Connor Brown Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (8), Derek Ryan (7)EDM 2 – 0 CGY · EDM 63% → 78% +16EDM 63% → 78%+16 pts
- P23:57Yegor Sharangovich Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (20), Jonathan Huberdeau (37)EDM 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 21% → 37% +16CGY 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P37:13Nazem Kadri Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (26), Andrei Kuzmenko (21)EDM 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 24% → 53% +29CGY 24% → 53%+29 pts
- P310:36Evan Bouchard Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (46), Connor McDavid (99)EDM 3 – 2 CGY · EDM 47% → 80% +33EDM 47% → 80%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 50%
- Fair odds
- CGY -135
- EDM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY 0 Elo | CGY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 12th of 3119–18 | Road vs home | 18–1920th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.