Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Kailer YamamotoGoals1
- Tomas TatarAssists1
- Kailer YamamotoPoints1
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:11Kailer Yamamoto Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Tomas Tatar (15)1–3
- P312:23Miro Heiskanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (40), Thomas Harley (32)0–3
- P219:23Jason Robertson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (39), Miro Heiskanen (45)0–2
- P119:57Craig Smith Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (51), Miro Heiskanen (44)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:57Craig Smith Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (51), Miro Heiskanen (44)SEA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 73% +16DAL 56% → 73%+16 pts
- P219:23Jason Robertson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (39), Miro Heiskanen (45)SEA 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 77% → 91% +14DAL 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P312:23Miro Heiskanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (40), Thomas Harley (32)SEA 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 98% → >99% +2DAL 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P314:11Kailer Yamamoto Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Tomas Tatar (15)SEA 1 – 3 DAL · SEA <1% → <1% +1SEA <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 68%
- Fair odds
- DAL -137
- SEA +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +4 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +132 Elo | DAL 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 15th of 3116–19 | Road vs home | 22–1511th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.