Seattle Kraken at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Nathan WalkerAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Nathan Walker Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P316:37Brayden Schenn Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (25), Nathan Walker (6)1–3
- P30:59Jordan Kyrou Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (6), Brandon Saad (16)1–2
- P118:18Kasperi Kapanen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (7)1–1
- P114:24Jared McCann Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:24Jared McCann Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 0 STL · SEA 41% → 58% +17SEA 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P118:18Kasperi Kapanen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (7)SEA 1 – 1 STL · STL 41% → 58% +17STL 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P30:59Jordan Kyrou Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (6), Brandon Saad (16)SEA 1 – 2 STL · STL 56% → 79% +23STL 56% → 79%+23 pts
- P316:37Brayden Schenn Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (25), Nathan Walker (6)SEA 1 – 3 STL · STL 94% → >99% +5STL 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P319:00Nathan Walker Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 4 STL · STL >99% → 100% +0STL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Fair odds
- STL -150
- SEA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +89 Elo | STL 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 47.0%24th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.4%4th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 18th of 3116–20 | Road vs home | 23–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.