Carolina Hurricanes at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jake GuentzelGoals2
- Jaccob SlavinAssists1
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Blues- Zack BolducGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:10Jake Guentzel Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (34), Jaccob Slavin (31)5–2
- P317:20Jake Guentzel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P37:53Jaccob Slavin Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (53), Tony DeAngelo (8)3–2
- P28:07Seth Jarvis Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (34), Frederik Andersen (1)2–2
- P25:41Jordan Kyrou Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (36), Robert Thomas (60)1–2
- P118:59Jordan Martinook Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (31)1–1
- P117:34Zack Bolduc Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (24), Robert Thomas (59)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:34Zack Bolduc Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (24), Robert Thomas (59)CAR 0 – 1 STL · STL 52% → 69% +17STL 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P118:59Jordan Martinook Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (31)CAR 1 – 1 STL · CAR 31% → 48% +17CAR 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P25:41Jordan Kyrou Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (36), Robert Thomas (60)CAR 1 – 2 STL · STL 52% → 70% +18STL 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P28:07Seth Jarvis Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (34), Frederik Andersen (1)CAR 2 – 2 STL · CAR 29% → 48% +19CAR 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P37:53Jaccob Slavin Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (53), Tony DeAngelo (8)CAR 3 – 2 STL · CAR 49% → 78% +30CAR 49% → 78%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 44%
- Fair odds
- STL -112
- CAR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −1 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +40 Elo | CAR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.2% | Shot share | 47.1%24th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.4%4th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 4th of 3122–15 | Road vs home | 23–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.