Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Jaccob SlavinAssists2
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints2
Bruins- Charlie McAvoyGoals1
- Jakub LaukoAssists1
- Charlie McAvoyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:22Seth Jarvis Goal (30) Wrap-around, assists: Brady Skjei (33), Jordan Staal (20)4–1
- P310:14Jake Guentzel Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P216:56Charlie McAvoy Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (7)2–1
- P213:05Teuvo Teravainen Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (30), Jaccob Slavin (30)2–0
- P210:55Andrei Svechnikov Goal (19) Cradle, assists: Jordan Martinook (17), Jaccob Slavin (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:55Andrei Svechnikov Goal (19) Cradle, assists: Jordan Martinook (17), Jaccob Slavin (29)CAR 1 – 0 BOS · CAR 47% → 67% +20CAR 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P213:05Teuvo Teravainen Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (30), Jaccob Slavin (30)CAR 2 – 0 BOS · CAR 68% → 84% +16CAR 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P216:56Charlie McAvoy Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (7)CAR 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 13% → 30% +17BOS 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P310:14Jake Guentzel Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 1 BOS · CAR 80% → 96% +16CAR 80% → 96%+16 pts
- P313:22Seth Jarvis Goal (30) Wrap-around, assists: Brady Skjei (33), Jordan Staal (20)CAR 4 – 1 BOS · CAR 98% → >99% +1CAR 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -120
- CAR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.3% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 5th of 3121–15 | Road vs home | 23–1510th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.